The coming fall and winter are set to bring a familiar surge of respiratory illnesses, according to several physicians who monitor seasonal virus patterns. The past two flu seasons were the worst in more than two decades, marked by high rates of illness, hospitalization and death. While exact severity cannot be forecasted, experts point to trends from the Southern Hemisphere and recent data to gauge what Americans might face.
Flu Season Timeline and Outlook
Dr. S. Wesley Long, medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist Hospital, says the flu season typically begins in September or October and can stretch through March, sometimes extending into April. “It usually peaks somewhere in that December/January timeframe,” he noted. Early in the season, influenza A viruses dominate, with influenza B appearing later in the winter. National surveillance already shows a gradual rise in flu A cases.
Long also highlighted that the Southern Hemisphere’s flu season, which runs from May to September, often foreshadows the North American experience. “The southern hemisphere flu season was fairly typical this year—neither particularly bad nor particularly good,” he said. Johns Hopkins associate professor Dr. Morgan Katz added that the current season appears “lighter and later” than the 2025‑26 season, offering a modestly encouraging sign.
RSV and Other Cold Viruses
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) traditionally follows a fall‑to‑winter pattern, starting around October and peaking in January. At present, RSV activity is low nationwide, according to Katz. The virus can cause mild cold‑like symptoms in healthy individuals but poses serious risks for infants, older adults and those with underlying conditions. A vaccine is available for infants, pregnant people, adults 75 and older, and high‑risk adults aged 50‑74, and it has demonstrated effectiveness.
Colds, driven by rhinoviruses, enteroviruses and other agents, also surge during the colder months. “We don’t have vaccines or antivirals for them,” said Dr. David Nguyen of Rush University Medical Center. He emphasized that testing for flu and COVID‑19 remains valuable because both illnesses have approved antiviral treatments. Long echoed this, recommending that anyone with respiratory symptoms consider a combined flu‑and‑COVID test.
Prevention Measures
All three physicians agree that vaccination is the most powerful tool to prevent severe outcomes. Nguyen urged eligible individuals to receive flu, COVID‑19 and RSV vaccines, stating, “I just can’t emphasize enough that… it would be very important to try and get them and talk with your doctor about your individual risk.”
Beyond shots, the experts advise reinstating non‑pharmacologic practices learned during the pandemic. Long suggested avoiding large, crowded indoor gatherings, keeping windows open when possible, and using masks in high‑risk settings. Katz pointed out that indoor confinement during winter reduces ventilation, facilitating virus spread, and that COVID‑19 cases are likely to rise as people gather more.
Nguyen added that while COVID‑19 does not follow a strict seasonal pattern, it tends to increase in the winter months, potentially peaking around January. He recommended continued hand hygiene and, when appropriate, masking to curb transmission of both COVID‑19 and other respiratory viruses.
In summary, the upcoming sick season is expected to follow historical patterns: flu activity beginning in early fall, RSV emerging in October with a January peak, and a rise in COVID‑19 cases as indoor interactions increase. Vaccination, testing, and basic public‑health measures remain the cornerstone of protection for all age groups, especially older adults, pregnant people and young infants who face the highest risk of complications.
Helene Elliott is the Lead Science & Space Reporter at News Raise. She reports on aerospace missions, astrophysics discoveries, quantum research, and environmental technology.
