President Donald Trump announced on Friday a new agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin that would see Russian diesel shipped to the United States and global markets in an effort to bring down soaring fuel costs. The deal calls for an immediate delivery of more than 300,000 tonnes, a further 500,000 tonnes in November, and an additional one million tonnes thereafter. Trump said a subsequent shipment of three million tonnes could follow “within a short period” once Russian refineries are ready.
Fuel price context and Trump’s diesel deal
U.S. gasoline and diesel prices have more than doubled since the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran began in February, pressuring transport companies, farmers and everyday drivers. The spike has become a central issue in the upcoming midterm elections, where voters are weighing affordability concerns against party platforms. Polls indicate a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of both the economy and the war in Iran, linking those perceptions to higher fuel costs.
Supply constraints have been blamed on two geopolitical flashpoints. According to David Ruisard, pricing manager at Argus, roughly 60 % of the diesel price increase—from about $3 to $6 per gallon—is tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the remaining 40 % stems from the Russia‑Ukraine war. Oxford Economics chief U.S. economist Michael Pearce said the resulting energy‑price surge is a major driver of this year’s inflation, prompting higher interest rates that squeeze household budgets and increase business expenses.
Despite the overall upward trend, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted modest recent declines in both gasoline and diesel. He attributed part of the dip to “maneuvers that we’ve seen the Trump administration employ over the last couple of weeks,” suggesting the diesel announcement itself has exerted downward pressure on prices.
Other policy moves and expert assessments
In addition to the Russian diesel deal, the administration has taken several other steps. Earlier this week Trump announced a temporary waiver allowing “red‑dye” diesel—fuel typically used off‑road and exempt from federal taxes—to be sold for highway use without the usual levy. Ruisard explained that the only difference between taxed diesel and red‑dye diesel is the dye, which is difficult to remove from tanks and can lead to hefty fines for tax evasion if not fully cleared.
The president has also floated suspending the federal gasoline tax, while urging states to lower their own levies. Ohio and Georgia have already cut state gasoline taxes, a move De Haan says helps lower national pump averages. However, a federal tax suspension would require congressional approval, which De Haan warned could be hard to secure before the midterms. He cited Indiana’s 2023 gasoline‑tax cut, which cost the state roughly $1 billion in lost revenue.
Analysts remain skeptical that these measures will produce lasting relief. Pearce cautioned that as long as Gulf energy exports stay disrupted, stockpiles will need to be drawn down, keeping prices elevated even after Middle‑East tensions ease. He also noted that a ban on U.S. diesel exports—previously supported by Trump—would likely benefit only certain regions and could trigger stockpiling, ultimately raising gasoline prices elsewhere.
De Haan summed up the situation, stating the president has “pulled all of the small levers that a president can pull, and we’re still seeing prices very elevated.” He argued that a meaningful reduction in fuel costs would require resolution of the underlying geopolitical conflicts, a task beyond direct White House control. Ruisard added that damage to Middle‑East production facilities means it could take four to six months for output to return to normal, suggesting high prices will persist for the near future.
Helene Elliott is the Lead Science & Space Reporter at News Raise. She reports on aerospace missions, astrophysics discoveries, quantum research, and environmental technology.
