The Trade Desk (TTD) saw its shares climb more than 15% on Monday after the company released third‑quarter results that outperformed Wall Street forecasts and announced the return of co‑founder and former chief technology officer Dave Pickles. The rally follows a prolonged period of decline that saw the stock lose about 90% of its value over the previous 18 months.
Quarterly performance beats forecasts
For the quarter ending September, The Trade Desk reported revenue of $736 million, a marginal 0.5% decline from the prior period. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell 16% to $266 million, while adjusted earnings per share dropped nearly 27% to $0.33. Although the headline numbers show contraction, they comfortably exceeded the company’s internal guidance of $650 million in revenue and $160 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Analysts had expected $651.4 million in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, according to consensus estimates. The Trade Desk therefore surpassed both revenue and earnings expectations with room to spare, catching investors and Wall Street analysts off guard.
Customer retention also remained robust, staying above the 95% mark for the quarter—a metric the firm has maintained for more than a decade. CEO Jeff Green described the results as “meaningful progress with results well ahead of our expectations entering the quarter,” while noting that the company continues to work “with greater urgency” to reverse its recent downturn.
Leadership change fuels optimism
In the days leading up to the earnings release, The Trade Desk announced that Dave Pickles, who stepped down as chief technology officer in 2023, would rejoin the company. Pickles co‑founded The Trade Desk in 2009 after a stint at digital ad exchange AdECN, where his team built an entire exchange in under seven months—a venture later acquired by Microsoft in 2007.
Green highlighted Pickles’ deep familiarity with the firm’s ad‑tech platform, calling him “the creator and architect of The Trade Desk’s adtech system.” The market reacted positively to the news, with the stock rallying more than 15% on the same day the earnings were released, reflecting investor belief that Pickles’ technical expertise could accelerate the company’s recovery.
Outlook and valuation
Looking ahead, management projected fourth‑quarter revenue of at least $755 million and adjusted EBITDA of $280 million. Both figures would represent sequential growth but still imply year‑over‑year declines of 11% in revenue and 30% in EBITDA. Nonetheless, the guidance remains well above analysts’ consensus estimate of $691 million for Q4 revenue.
Even after the rally, The Trade Desk trades at roughly 15 times earnings, a valuation that some investors find appealing given the recent performance bounce. However, market commentators caution that the company must sustain its momentum over multiple quarters before the optimism can be fully justified.
Overall, the combination of better‑than‑expected earnings, strong customer retention, and the return of a key technology leader has reignited hope among shareholders. While the stock’s recent surge signals renewed confidence, the path ahead will be judged by the firm’s ability to deliver consistent growth and improve profitability in the coming quarters.
Norman Pearlstine is the Executive Editor and Co-Founder at News Raise. With over two decades of experience across financial journalism, corporate governance, and market analysis, Norman leads the editorial direction and ensures strict adherence to journalistic accuracy and ethics.
