Indian equity benchmarks are slated to begin trading on the upside on Tuesday, 15 September, after closing lower in the previous session. The Gift Nifty, a leading futures contract, was quoted around 23,531 at 7:39 a.m., a premium of 46 points over the Nifty futures’ prior close of 23,485.20, indicating a tentative positive start.
Yesterday’s market performance
In the session that ended on Monday, the Sensex slipped 120.83 points, or 0.16%, to finish at 74,781.76. The broader Nifty 50 fell 79.70 points, or 0.34%, closing at 23,398.10, just under the 23,400 threshold. The decline followed a broader pull‑back in global equities and heightened concerns over energy markets.
Key drivers: oil, geopolitics and global sentiment
Chief Executive Officer of Enrich Money, Ponmudi R, cautioned that Indian markets are likely to trade with a “cautious bias” as crude oil prices remain the most immediate risk. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading in the $102‑103 per barrel range, while Brent crude hovered above $106, driven by worries about disruptions to Saudi oil infrastructure and critical shipping lanes.
These price levels have reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy worldwide, adding to inflationary pressure. The same report noted that the US 10‑year Treasury yield briefly breached the 5 % mark for the first time since 2023, reflecting heightened inflation concerns linked to elevated energy costs.
Geopolitical tension also featured prominently. Renewed US‑Iran military friction and a fresh escalation involving Yemen’s Iran‑backed Houthis have raised the spectre of a broader regional conflict that could affect global energy supplies and shipping routes. Ponmudi R said these developments are likely to keep investor sentiment guarded, even as the Gift Nifty hints at a technical rebound from last week’s lows.
On the technology front, senior AI executives have voiced concerns about the pace and risks of artificial‑intelligence development, prompting a sell‑off in semiconductor and AI‑related stocks. The pressure on tech equities added to the global equity market’s volatility.
Technical outlook for India’s major indices
Sachin Gupta, Vice President of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking, expects the Sensex to remain in a sideways range in the near term, likely consolidating between 74,000 and 75,200. He noted that holding the 74,000‑74,160 support zone could sustain the current recovery attempt, allowing a retest of the 75,000‑75,200 resistance band. A decisive breakout above that resistance would improve the outlook, while a break below 74,000 could reignite selling pressure.
Technical analyst Rajesh Bhosale of My Advisor Alpha highlighted a deepening correction in the Nifty 50. After a gradual decline over four weeks that erased much of the July rally, the index fell sharply this week, breaching multiple support levels. Bhosale identified a double‑top near 24,700 and a break of the rising trendline connecting higher bottoms, forming a descending triangle that suggests continued near‑term pressure.
He added that momentum indicators have entered oversold territory, with the daily RSI around 27, potentially allowing an intermittent relief bounce. However, the broader trend is expected to stay weak until key resistance levels are reclaimed. Bhosale listed 24,000 as a “stiff hurdle,” with 23,800 and 23,600 now acting as resistance after previously serving as support. On the downside, the immediate support zone lies around 23,200, followed by the June low near 23,100. A decisive break below these levels could trigger further downside.
Bank Nifty showed a contrasting intra‑day story. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said the index opened with a gap down but quickly recovered about 890 points from the day’s low, closing 0.24 % higher. The daily chart formed a strong bullish candle with a lower wick, indicating buying interest at lower levels. Shah identified the 56,000‑55,900 zone as a crucial support area; a sustained breach below 55,900 could invite further selling toward 55,500. On the upside, 57,100‑57,200 is the immediate hurdle, with a move above 57,200 potentially extending the pullback toward 57,500.
Commodities and broader market backdrop
Crude oil extended its rally on Tuesday, with Brent gaining 1.3 % to near $107 a barrel, marking a monthly gain of more than 18 %. The price surge reflected traders’ assessment of risks to Middle‑East supplies, especially after a key Saudi pipeline remained offline following attacks.
Higher oil prices weighed on Asian bond markets. Government debt in Australia and New Zealand opened lower as Asian bonds tracked a decline in US Treasuries after the 10‑year yield briefly crossed 5 % in New York trading. During Asian hours, the 10‑year US Treasury yield stood at 4.99 %.
Gold prices fell as rising crude reinforced inflation concerns and bolstered expectations of higher US interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Spot gold slipped 0.3 % to $4,285.91 per ounce at 00:15 GMT, after hitting its lowest level in more than a month in the previous session. US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.6 % to $4,326.90.
Stock picks for intraday traders
Market experts recommended eight stocks for intraday buying, each with suggested entry, stop‑loss and target levels. The list includes:
- One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm) – buy at ₹1,808; stop‑loss ₹1,744; target ₹1,934.
- Granules India Ltd – buy at ₹909; stop‑loss ₹882; target ₹977.
- State Bank of India (SBI) – buy at ₹995; stop‑loss ₹985; target ₹1,015.
- HDFC Bank Ltd – buy at ₹708; stop‑loss ₹700; target ₹725.
- NBCC – buy at ₹83; stop‑loss ₹80; target ₹86.
- Thermax Ltd – buy at ₹3,682; stop‑loss ₹3,615; target ₹3,870.
- Waaree Energies Ltd – buy at ₹2,625; stop‑loss ₹2,575; target ₹2,750.
- VA Tech Wabag Ltd – buy at ₹2,277; stop‑loss ₹2,235; target ₹2,400.
These recommendations come with a disclaimer that they reflect individual analysts’ views and not the publishing outlet’s endorsement. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before acting on any trading advice.
Overall, while the Gift Nifty points to a modest opening gain, elevated oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed global cues are likely to keep Indian equity markets in a cautious stance. Technical indicators suggest that both Sensex and Nifty 50 may trade within defined ranges unless a clear breakout or breakdown occurs, making close monitoring of support‑resistance zones and macro‑economic developments essential for traders.
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