Indian equity markets are poised to begin trading on Thursday, 15 October, on a cautious footing, according to the pre‑market signal from the GIFT Nifty. The index, which reflects futures pricing, was quoted around 22,601, roughly ten points below the prior close of Nifty futures, suggesting a muted or slightly negative opening for the country’s benchmark indices.
Domestic market outlook and recent performance
Both the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty closed in negative territory on Wednesday, following a profit‑taking rally that had lifted them sharply in the previous session. The Sensex slipped 251.89 points, or 0.34%, to finish at 72,781.89 after touching an intraday high of 73,195.26 and a low of 72,578.75. The Nifty 50 fell 99.25 points, a 0.44% decline, to settle at 22,622.70.
Market participants cited a combination of rising wholesale‑price inflation and elevated crude‑oil prices as key factors that dampened sentiment. “Markets surrendered part of the previous session’s sharp gains on Wednesday as profit booking resurfaced amid persistent macroeconomic concerns,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice‑president of research at Religare Broking. He added that the indices opened cautiously and remained volatile, with investors hesitant to add to positions after a strong rebound on Tuesday.
Technical perspectives on Sensex and Nifty
Technical analysts highlighted specific price zones that could shape the next move. Sachin Gupta, vice‑president of technical research at Choice Equity Broking, noted that the Sensex is likely to trade sideways for now, with resistance clustered between 73,000 and 73,200. He warned that a sustained break above this band would be needed to reignite buying interest and target the 73,500 level. Conversely, a dip below 72,500 could open the path to further weakness around the 72,300 support area.
Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, focused on the Nifty 50, observing that the index faced resistance near the 200‑day simple moving average on the 30‑minute chart and showed a bearish RSI crossover. He also pointed to a hidden negative divergence on the daily RSI, indicating underlying weakness despite the recent rally, which was largely driven by banking and information‑technology stocks. De placed immediate resistance at 22,650 and 22,800, while identifying 22,500 as a critical support level; a breach of that floor could trigger accelerated selling.
Global cues: US inflation and Asian market weakness
The cautious tone in India is being reinforced by developments on Wall Street. U.S. consumer‑price data for September showed a 3.7% year‑on‑year increase, exceeding both the August figure of 3.4% and market expectations of 3.6%. The hotter‑than‑expected inflation reading has revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for a longer period, putting pressure on growth‑ and technology‑heavy equities.
Ponmudi R, chief executive officer of Enrich Money, explained that the elevated inflation reading has eroded sentiment, noting that “the stronger inflation reading has reinforced concerns that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated for longer, putting pressure on richly valued growth and technology stocks.” This sentiment was reflected in U.S. futures, which fell on Tuesday, and in the performance of major U.S. indices on Wednesday.
On the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a recovery of more than 260 points from intraday lows left the index essentially flat at the close. In contrast, the S&P 500 ended the session about 1% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq‑100 each fell roughly 2%, driven by a sharp sell‑off in AI‑related stocks.
Asian markets opened lower on Thursday, adding to the downward pressure on sentiment. South Korean equities experienced a near‑6% plunge as foreign investors sold chip‑focused stocks amid renewed expectations of U.S. rate hikes and concerns over financing the AI boom. The sharp fall triggered a “sidecar” trading curb on the KOSPI, with the benchmark opening 5.59% lower at 5,673.01. Program trading in KOSPI‑listed shares was temporarily halted for five minutes.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 also fell sharply, dropping 3.5% in early trade, with technology stocks bearing the brunt of the decline. The broader Topix index slipped 1.9%. AI‑related names such as chip‑making equipment makers Advantest and Tokyo Electron fell 7.3% and 5.8% respectively, while SoftBank Group, a major backer of AI startups, slid 7.9%.
Across the Taiwan Strait, the Taiex index fell 2.67%, or about 1,300 points, to 47,325.70, mirroring the broader regional sell‑off.
Implications for Indian investors
Given the convergence of a sticky U.S. inflation environment, a pullback in Asian equities, and technical resistance levels highlighted by local analysts, investors in India may adopt a more defensive posture on Thursday. The GIFT Nifty’s near‑flat start suggests that any significant upside momentum will need to overcome both global risk aversion and domestic technical barriers.
While the recent rally in Indian markets was partly fueled by gains in banking and IT sectors, analysts caution that the recovery may be more of a relief rally rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. Traders are likely to monitor price action around the 73,000‑73,200 zone for the Sensex and the 22,650‑22,800 range for the Nifty, while keeping a close eye on open‑interest dynamics that could signal shifts in market participation.
Overall, the outlook for Thursday points to a tentative opening, with the potential for volatility as investors digest global cues and assess whether the Indian market can break through the identified resistance levels without further external shocks.
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