{"id":1896,"date":"2026-09-04T08:33:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T08:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/2026\/09\/04\/india-june-quarter-gdp-growth-scrutiny\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T08:33:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T08:33:11","slug":"india-june-quarter-gdp-growth-scrutiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/2026\/09\/04\/india-june-quarter-gdp-growth-scrutiny\/","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s June\u2011Quarter GDP Growth Faces Scrutiny Over Data Revision"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Quick Adsense WordPress Plugin: http:\/\/quickadsense.com\/ -->\n<div class=\"9fece8afa224fd09e54b043d0febfb58\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- NR ATF -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8898941184964366\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4839033563\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>India reported a 7.8% year\u2011on\u2011year expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) for the April\u2011June quarter, a rate that outpaced most major economies. The figure, however, has quickly become the subject of intense debate after a former senior government official alleged that the growth reading was artificially enhanced by revising down the prior year\u2019s data.<\/p>\n<h2>Allegations of Data Manipulation<\/h2>\n<p>Subhash Chandra Garg, who served as finance secretary from 2017 to 2019, told CNBC that the GDP in current prices for the April\u2011June quarter of 2025 was reduced by 6\u202ftrillion rupees \u2013 roughly $63.5\u202fbillion \u2013 to 80\u202ftrillion rupees in the latest release. He said that the reduction means the current quarter\u2019s reported GDP of 88.27\u202ftrillion rupees looks more favorable when compared year over year.<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s chief economic advisor, V\u202fAnantha Nageshwaran, responded in a local media interview, describing the claim as \u201ccherry\u2011picking\u201d data. Nageshwaran explained that the latest figures were compiled using the financial year ending March\u202f2023 as a new base, and that a methodological change led to revisions of last year\u2019s quarterly numbers. He added that some quarters may be adjusted upward while others may be adjusted downward as part of the statistical revision, urging observers to focus on consistency rather than isolated numbers.<\/p>\n<p>The finance ministry did not provide a direct comment to CNBC\u2019s request for clarification. Instead, it shared a link to Nageshwaran\u2019s remarks in the local media outlet.<\/p>\n<p>Garg pressed the issue further, arguing that a change in methodology alone does not explain \u201cwhat went out of the production to bring down the value of last year\u2019s GDP by six trillion rupees.\u201d He characterized the unexplained reduction as a \u201cmissing GDP\u201d that the government has yet to address.<\/p>\n<p>Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s political opponents seized on the controversy. The Indian National Congress party claimed that over the last four years, GDP figures have been \u201crevised down by 43\u202flakh crore\u201d \u2013 about $455\u202fbillion. The party\u2019s post suggested that the revisions represent large \u201ccorrections\u201d that imply an excess of goods and services was previously added to GDP and has now been removed.<\/p>\n<p>Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, defending the official numbers, affirmed that \u201cIndia\u2019s 7.8% growth is a reality,\u201d countering the skepticism expressed by opposition figures and some analysts.<\/p>\n<h2>Expert and Institutional Responses<\/h2>\n<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously raised concerns about the accuracy of India\u2019s economic data, assigning the country a \u201cC grade\u201d \u2013 its second\u2011lowest ranking \u2013 in a report released last year. The IMF highlighted issues such as an outdated base year, reliance on wholesale price indices, and the use of a single deflation factor for calculating inflation. To address these concerns, India adopted a new statistical framework in February, updating the base year and revising the methodology for calculating key aggregates.<\/p>\n<p>Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that India\u2019s GDP data still leans heavily on formal\u2011sector corporate information, while a substantial portion of the informal economy must be estimated. She noted that this estimation gap often fuels skepticism, as headline numbers may not fully reflect on\u2011the\u2011ground realities.<\/p>\n<p>Economists offered mixed assessments of Garg\u2019s argument. Several experts said the claim is technically unsound because it compares figures derived from two different base years. Nonetheless, Anil Sood, a professor and co\u2011founder of the Institute of Advanced Studies in Complex Choices in Mumbai, warned that \u201cestimation errors\u201d in earlier data remain a concern. Sood observed that after the new series was released in February, all previous GDP and gross value added (GVA) numbers were revised downward, indicating that the estimated size of the Indian economy was smaller than earlier projections.\n<\/p>\n<p>Standard Chartered Bank\u2019s Anubhuti Sahay, head of India economic research, said the first\u2011quarter numbers look better primarily because of the improved methodology, but she downplayed the role of base\u2011year revisions. \u201cIt is not that the GDP number is only froth,\u201d Sahay remarked, adding that while the growth percentage can be debated, the absolute number should not be dismissed outright. She pointed to India\u2019s key high\u2011frequency indicators, which she said are \u201cholding up undoubtedly,\u201d even as she cautioned that growth is uneven and challenges such as quality\u2011job creation and the impact of El\u202fNi\u00f1o on the rural economy persist.<\/p>\n<p>Global brokerages continue to project a modest slowdown. Morgan Stanley and Citi forecast economic growth of 7.3% for the twelve months ending March\u202f2027, slightly below the 7.8% reported for the June quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Jaydeep Mukherjee, a professor of economics at Great Lakes Institute of Management in Chennai, described the composition of the June\u2011quarter activity as \u201cunusually driven by a sharp rise in investments and stronger exports,\u201d while household consumption improved only at a \u201crelatively mild pace.\u201d He warned that such a pattern may be \u201cnot sustainable\u201d amid ongoing geopolitical risks.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, the debate underscores the tension between impressive headline growth and the underlying data\u2011quality issues that have long been flagged by international institutions and domestic analysts. As India moves forward with its revised statistical framework, the balance between methodological rigor and political narratives will likely shape perceptions of the country\u2019s economic performance in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India\u2019s 7.8% growth in the June quarter is being questioned after a former finance secretary says the prior year\u2019s GDP was artificially lowered, prompting political and expert debate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[299],"tags":[1915,1873,251,216,564],"class_list":["post-1896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-economic-data","tag-gdp","tag-imf","tag-india","tag-politics","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1896","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1896"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1896\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}