{"id":2085,"date":"2026-09-20T08:32:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T08:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/2026\/09\/20\/nifty-fourth-session-oil-sanctions-investor-flows\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T08:32:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T08:32:29","slug":"nifty-fourth-session-oil-sanctions-investor-flows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/2026\/09\/20\/nifty-fourth-session-oil-sanctions-investor-flows\/","title":{"rendered":"Nifty eyes fourth\u2011day rally as oil, sanctions and investor flows shape outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Quick Adsense WordPress Plugin: http:\/\/quickadsense.com\/ -->\n<div class=\"9fece8afa224fd09e54b043d0febfb58\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- NR ATF -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8898941184964366\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4839033563\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Both the Sensex and the Nifty were in positive territory before the closing auction session (CAS) began on Friday. Within seconds of the CAS opening, the Sensex plunged almost 1,000 points, only to rebound sharply. The Nifty managed to erase the entire loss during the same interval, while the Sensex closed with a modest loss despite its recovery.<\/p>\n<h2>Key drivers of market sentiment<\/h2>\n<p>Four distinct factors are expected to shape investor mood from Monday onward.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Oil price trajectory.<\/strong> Crude oil prices slipped for a third consecutive day on Friday, yet they continued to trade comfortably above the $100\u2011per\u2011barrel mark. JPMorgan, in a note dated Thursday, said that for the first time since the U.S.\u2013Israel conflict with Iran began in February, the firm no longer holds a clear baseline view for the oil market, underscoring lingering uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Tensions surrounding Iran.<\/strong> Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained. Preliminary data released on Friday showed that only four commodity vessels transited the waterway on Thursday, far below the ten\u2011day average of roughly 16 ships. Iran claimed responsibility for striking a Togo\u2011flagged oil tanker attempting to pass the strait. Meanwhile, Tehran witnessed a massive rally \u2013 the largest public show of support for the government since the United States and Israel launched attacks in February.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. New U.S. sanctions on Russia.<\/strong> On September 18, President Donald Trump signed the \u201cLindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.\u201d The legislation grants the U.S. Treasury authority to impose tariffs of up to 100\u202f% on the five biggest purchasers of Russian oil or natural gas. Potentially affected importers include India and China. The law also targets Russian officials, banks, energy and defence sectors, and the so\u2011called \u201cshadow fleet\u201d of tankers that evade existing sanctions. The tariff power is discretionary, meaning the administration can decide case by case rather than automatically applying a full 100\u202f% levy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) activity.<\/strong> On the capital\u2011flow front, FIIs recorded net sales for the fifth straight week, offloading about \u20b97,620\u202fcrore. In contrast, DIIs extended a buying streak, acquiring a net \u20b911,232\u202fcrore. For the month to date, FIIs have sold a cumulative \u20b97,041\u202fcrore, while DIIs have bought a net \u20b936,219\u202fcrore. The Nifty is down roughly 3.05\u202f% from its August\u2011end close of 24,080.40. Over the past month, FIIs have been net sellers in each of the five weeks, whereas DIIs have remained net buyers, cushioning the index\u2019s decline from a high of 24,154.90 to a low of 23,346.40.<\/p>\n<p>Market strategists at Bajaj Broking caution that continued FII outflows and broader global headwinds could sustain volatility, but persistent domestic institutional buying may limit downside pressure. They advise investors to monitor Brent crude movements, developments in the U.S.\u2013Iran geopolitical arena, and forthcoming U.S. and Indian purchasing\u2011manager indices (PMI) for clues on near\u2011term direction.<\/p>\n<h2>Technical outlook for the Nifty<\/h2>\n<p>Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities observes that the Nifty continues to trade well beneath both its short\u2011term and long\u2011term moving averages, which themselves are on a downward trajectory. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovered after touching a low of 22.23, climbing to 34.17 at the time of writing. A bullish crossover in the RSI suggests that the intensity of the recent correction may be easing, potentially allowing for a short\u2011term pause in the downtrend.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst points to the 23,050\u201323,000 price corridor as a pivotal support zone. This range aligns with the prior swing low and corresponds to the 61.8\u202f% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier upward rally. A decisive break beneath the 23,000 level could reopen a path toward the 22,700 region in the near term, while a hold above this threshold would bolster the case for a brief stabilization.<\/p>\n<h2>Outlook and market focus<\/h2>\n<p>Given the confluence of external pressures \u2013 notably oil price dynamics, heightened Iran\u2011related shipping risks, and the newly enacted U.S. sanctions framework \u2013 the Indian equity market is likely to remain sensitive to global cues. At the same time, the contrasting behavior of foreign and domestic institutional investors adds a domestic layer of complexity. Analysts suggest that the Nifty\u2019s behavior around the 23,000 support mark on Monday will be a key barometer for whether the index can sustain its tentative gains or revert to a deeper correction.<\/p>\n<p>Investors are therefore advised to keep a close eye on Brent crude price trends, any escalation or de\u2011escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, the impact of the U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the upcoming PMI releases, all of which could collectively steer market sentiment in the early part of the week.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts cite falling oil prices, new U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran\u2011related shipping disruptions and mixed foreign investor flows as the main forces that will steer the Nifty on Monday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[299],"tags":[1846,1843,1687,1844,2212],"class_list":["post-2085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-foreign-investors","tag-indian-markets","tag-nifty","tag-oil-prices","tag-us-sanctions","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2085\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2086"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}