{"id":2712,"date":"2026-10-16T08:34:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T08:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/2026\/10\/16\/rbi-steps-short-term-relief-rupee-nears-100\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T08:34:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T08:34:15","slug":"rbi-steps-short-term-relief-rupee-nears-100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/2026\/10\/16\/rbi-steps-short-term-relief-rupee-nears-100\/","title":{"rendered":"RBI steps give short\u2011term relief as rupee nears 100 per dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Quick Adsense WordPress Plugin: http:\/\/quickadsense.com\/ -->\n<div class=\"9fece8afa224fd09e54b043d0febfb58\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- NR ATF -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-8898941184964366\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4839033563\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>India&#8217;s currency has been under persistent pressure from a combination of fund outflows and a rising energy bill, even as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rolled out a set of measures intended to slow its depreciation. After briefly climbing from a low of 96.79 rupees per U.S. dollar to the 95\u2011rupee level, the rupee is projected by several market strategists to weaken again, potentially reaching the psychologically significant 100\u2011per\u2011dollar mark toward the end of 2026 and into mid\u20112027.<\/p>\n<h2>RBI&#8217;s latest market interventions<\/h2>\n<p>On Saturday, the RBI announced a package of actions designed to make speculative trading on the rupee more costly and to limit the re\u2011booking of cancelled foreign\u2011exchange derivative contracts. In addition, the central bank opened a special window to satisfy the full daily dollar requirements of three public\u2011sector oil marketing companies, effectively ring\u2011fencing that demand from the spot market. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra told the Indian media outlet Moneycontrol that the bank is &#8220;determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure orderly movement in the foreign exchange market.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>According to Devarsh Vakil, head of research at HDFC Securities, the new steps are expected to provide &#8220;short\u2011term to medium\u2011term stability, not long\u2011term structural support.&#8221; The measures, therefore, are seen as a tactical response to immediate market stress rather than a solution to deeper imbalances.<\/p>\n<h2>Forecasts from market analysts<\/h2>\n<p>Strategists at S&#038;P Global Market Intelligence, led by Hanna Luchnikava\u2011Schorsch, expect the rupee to trade around 97 per dollar by the end of 2026 and to reach 98 rupees by mid\u20112027. A similar outlook was voiced by Vishnu Varathan, head of macro strategy for APAC at Singapore\u2011based Mizuho Securities, who also projected a slide to 98 rupees against the greenback by late 2026 and early 2027. Both sets of forecasts acknowledge that while RBI actions may temper the pace of depreciation, they cannot fully offset fundamental pressures stemming from elevated oil prices, a widening current\u2011account deficit and a challenging global capital\u2011flow environment.<\/p>\n<p>Luchnikava\u2011Schorsch warned that a move toward the 100\u2011rupee level cannot be ruled out, especially if oil prices rise further, portfolio outflows resume, or the current\u2011account deficit expands beyond current expectations.<\/p>\n<h2>Underlying structural pressures<\/h2>\n<p>India\u2019s external vulnerabilities have been accentuated by several factors. The country imports roughly 85\u202f% of its fuel, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as a key supply route that has become riskier since the outbreak of the Iran\u2011related conflict. Elevated energy costs have therefore added to the rupee\u2019s downward pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn a substantial amount of capital this year, selling direct Indian equities worth $32.5\u202fbillion through October\u202f13, according to data from the Indian depository NSDL. The outflow reflects heightened risk aversion and a perceived lack of artificial\u2011intelligence\u2011related investment opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>In June, the RBI launched a special scheme known as the Foreign Currency Non\u2011Resident (Bank) deposits (FCNR\u2011B), offering incentives to non\u2011resident Indians for placing foreign\u2011currency deposits in Indian banks. The program boosted the central bank\u2019s foreign\u2011exchange reserves by $105\u202fbillion, but the subsequent closure of the scheme on August\u202f30 was followed by a 1.9\u202f% decline in the rupee against the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Nomura, a global brokerage, noted that the RBI had to intervene aggressively in the spot market to counter the rupee\u2019s decline, while Ambit Capital reported that the central bank\u2019s dollar\u2011sales interventions have reduced foreign\u2011exchange reserves by $51\u202fbillion as of October\u202f2. The FCNR\u2011B scheme and related currency\u2011swap measures have also generated forward dollar commitments of $200\u202fbillion, which effectively lower the RBI\u2019s reserve cover and leave the rupee more exposed to further depreciation.<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s import\u2011cover ratio \u2013 the number of months of import needs that can be met with existing reserves \u2013 has slipped to around 6.2 months, the lowest level since the U.S. taper tantrum of 2013. This weakening buffer adds to concerns about the rupee\u2019s resilience in the face of sustained external shocks.<\/p>\n<h2>Policy responses and corporate advice<\/h2>\n<p>Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to citizens to curb foreign travel and gold purchases, first in May and again last month, in an effort to ease pressure on the rupee. The calls reflect the government\u2019s recognition that consumer\u2011driven demand for foreign currency can exacerbate the currency\u2019s weakness.<\/p>\n<p>Harsimran Sahni, associate director and head of treasury at Anand Rathi Global Finance, cautioned that the rupee is likely to stay under pressure throughout the financial year ending in March\u202f2027. Sahni advised businesses to strengthen hedging strategies and to stress\u2011test foreign\u2011currency exposures, noting that while RBI interventions can moderate volatility, they cannot offset external imbalances indefinitely.<\/p>\n<p>If sustained capital outflows coincide with high crude prices and a widening current\u2011account deficit, the rupee could move toward the 100\u2011per\u2011dollar threshold, Sahni said.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, analysts agree that the RBI\u2019s recent measures provide a temporary cushion but do not resolve the structural challenges posed by high oil import dependence, a fragile current\u2011account position and a global environment that is less conducive to capital inflows. The currency\u2019s trajectory will therefore depend on how these fundamental forces evolve in the months and years ahead.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India&#8217;s central bank has introduced measures to curb speculative bets on the rupee, but analysts say fundamental pressures could push the currency toward the 100\u2011per\u2011dollar threshold by 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[299],"tags":[2994,1850,1757,1844,2031,2073],"class_list":["post-2712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-capital-outflows","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-india-economy","tag-oil-prices","tag-rbi","tag-rupee","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2712\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsraise.com\/in\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}