Bihar Election Results: Nitish Kumar’s Supremacy Again?

As the high-stakes Bihar Assembly elections conclude, the state has witnessed a historic voter turnout of 66.91 per cent.

This event has been marked as one of the most participative elections in recent history. The initial exit polls released after the two-phase polling suggest that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to form the next government in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party appears to have made barely any impact.

While most metrics give an edge to the NDA, when it comes to the preferred chief minister, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav is preferred as the CM by quite a margin.

The counting of votes will take place on November 14, deciding whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar retains his power or Tejashwi Yadav, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Mahagathbandhan’s front face, manages an upset.

What is an Exit Poll?

Exit polls are conducted by researches who directly speak with voters regarding which party they have voted for, after which they compile the data and come up with predictions ahead of the actual results. Exit polls are revealed on the last day of election soon after voters leave the polling stations.

Exit Polls Hint at NDA Victory

According to multiple exit poll projections, the NDA is set to secure a comfortable majority, with estimates ranging between 130 – 209 seats — well above the required majority mark of 122.

Pollsters such as Matrize, P-Marq, and People’s Pulse indicate that the ruling alliance (NDA), buoyed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “guarantees” and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s development model, continues to enjoy the electorate’s confidence.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) — comprising of the RJD, Congress and Left parties — is expected to trail significantly, with projected tallies between 70 – 102 seats.

Axis My India Releases Predictions

Axis My India’s predictions are known to be quite accurate and reliable.

Their exit polls indicate that the votes are divided in Bihar almost equally between the two chief coalitions when it comes to a geography-wise analysis. While the NDA edges out the competition with 43%, the MGB is slightly behind at 41%.
In terms of gender comparison, men are in favour of the MGB, women prefer the NDA. This probably hinges on Nitish Kumar’s ban on alcohol in the state, which has found him a strong support base among the women of Bihar.
The MGB has stronger support from students, labourers, and farmers, while the office-goers and self-employed individuals, along with housewives, are on the NDA’s side.
The exit poll also highlights a familiar pattern in caste-based preferences. The NDA maintains a comfortable edge across most sub-castes, while the MGB continues to dominate primarily among the Yadav and Muslim communities, two groups that have traditionally been its strongholds.

Today’s Chanakya Predictions

Their exit polls have projected a comfortable win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) in the assembly elections.
For the NDA, Today’s Chanakya has projected about 160 seats, with a margin of error of 12. Meaning the BJP and JDU-led alliance is projected to win between 148 and 172 seats.
For the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, the pollster has projected 77 seats with a margin of error of 12 seats, making it a 65-89 window.

Tejashwi Yadav Alleges Attempt to Influence Results

Even as the exit polls favor the NDA, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has accused the ruling coalition of attempting to ‘manipulate’ the election results ahead of the counting day.

The people of Bihar have voted for change. These exit polls are designed under the direction of the BJP’s top leadership and hold no truth, as per an explosive statement made by Yadav.
He expressed his confidence that the INDIA bloc will register a ‘thumping victory’ once the actual results are announced.
Meanwhile, anticipation is running high in Patna, where BJP workers have already begun preparations for celebrations, expecting a favorable outcome for the NDA.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party Fails to Make a Mark

Political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, who entered the fray with high expectations through his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), appears to have failed to strike a chord with voters.

Despite ambitious outreach campaigns and promises of a new political model, multiple exit polls predict that Jan Suraaj may win anywhere between 0 – 5 seats.
According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll, Kishor’s party has performed poorly, falling short of the widespread traction many had anticipated.
If these predictions hold, the setback may force Kishor to reassess both his political messaging and strategy in the state, which remains crucial given Bihar’s influence with 40 Lok Sabha seats in national politics.

Women Outvote Men: A Landmark in Bihar’s Democratic History

Beyond political predictions, the 2025 Bihar elections have made history for another reason — they have emerged as the most gender-inclusive polls since Independence. For the first time ever, women voters outnumbered men in both phases of polling, underscoring a remarkable social and political transformation in the state.

Economic Backdrop: Jobs, Migration, and Development

While governance and social welfare continue to dominate Bihar’s political discourse, economic stagnation remains a pressing concern.

Bihar spends nearly half of its total revenue on welfare schemes, a model that has long characterized its governance approach.
However, the lack of industrial growth and private investment continues to push the youth toward migration in search of jobs.
In FY 2024–25, Bihar attracted only $215 million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) — among the lowest in India.
Despite a large youth demographic, one in every four voters being under 30, many residents still earn less than INR 6,000 per month, highlighting the state’s urgent need for employment-driven growth.

NDA’s Governance Model vs. Mahagathbandhan’s Challenge

The election outcome will ultimately determine whether Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving Chief Minister and JD(U) president, secures yet another term — backed by the BJP-led NDA — or if the RJD-Congress alliance manages to regain control.

The NDA’s campaign revolved around themes of infrastructure, welfare, and Modi’s development narrative.
While the Mahagathbandhan focused on unemployment, inflation, and governance fatigue under the ruling coalition.

Countdown to November 14: The Final Verdict Awaits

As Bihar gears up for the vote counting on November 14 (Friday), all eyes are on Patna where political parties are preparing for contrasting outcomes — celebration or introspection.

If exit polls are accurate, Nitish Kumar could extend his legacy with another term, while Tejashwi Yadav would lead the Opposition benches in the Assembly.
For Prashant Kishor, however, the results will serve as a political reality check — compelling him to rethink his strategy in one of India’s most politically dynamic states.
Whatever the outcome, the 2025 Bihar elections have already made history — not just for their record voter turnout and female participation, but also for redefining the political grammar of India’s heartland as one driven by gender plus governance.