Indian equity markets are expected to start Monday, 5 October 2026, on a modestly positive note after GIFT Nifty futures moved above the 22,600 mark, outpacing the Nifty 50’s prior close of 22,422. The upward tick, roughly 50 points higher than the previous close, suggests an early attempt at recovery despite a backdrop of sustained weakness.
Indian market outlook
Enrich Money’s chief executive, Ponmudi R, highlighted that softer‑than‑expected U.S. employment data has eased immediate worries about further Federal Reserve tightening at its upcoming October meeting, providing a modest boost to global risk appetite. Nevertheless, he cautioned that elevated Treasury yields, ongoing foreign institutional selling, and renewed geopolitical tensions could cap upside potential and keep market participants guarded throughout the session.
The broader Indian market has been on a downward trajectory for eight straight weeks, marking the longest weekly losing streak in a quarter‑century. Over the week, the benchmark Sensex slipped 1,670.84 points to close at 71,909.70, a decline of 0.79% on the final day and 1.52% on Monday alone. The Nifty 50 fell more than 3% to settle at 22,421.95. Ponmudi R attributed the persistent pressure to a mix of foreign selling, high crude‑oil prices, a weaker rupee, and rising global bond yields, all of which have weighed on investor sentiment.
During Monday’s session, the Sensex briefly dropped below its April 2025 swing low of 71,425.01 before recovering to end the day above that level. The index’s final reading of 71,909.70 reflected a loss of 570.59 points, or 0.79%, underscoring the continued vulnerability of Indian equities.
Technical indicators and support levels
Technical analysts offered a detailed view of the market’s condition. Sachin Gupta, vice‑president of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking, noted that the Sensex remains under both its 50‑day and 200‑day exponential moving averages, positioned at 75,544.56 and 77,684.60 respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 24.55, indicating that the index is deeply oversold. Gupta identified the 71,000–71,200 range as a critical support zone, while resistance appears clustered between 72,300 and 72,500.
On the Nifty side, Ajit Mishra, senior vice‑president of Research at Religare Broking, observed that the index has undergone a sharp correction after eight weeks of decline. The Nifty tested a long‑term support band formed by the 200‑week simple moving average and the 200‑week exponential moving average, both hovering around the 22,400–22,600 region – a zone not seen in nearly six years. The index also approached its prior major swing low of 22,182.55 before closing at 22,421.95.
Mishra argued that, despite the prevailing bearish trend, the combination of strong technical support and oversold conditions could spark a short‑term bounce. He recommended a hedged approach, targeting an initial upside move to 22,800, followed by a secondary target range of 23,100–23,200. However, a decisive breach of the April low could invalidate the rebound outlook and drive the Nifty toward a 21,700–22,000 corridor. He stressed the importance of strict stop‑losses and disciplined risk management in the current environment.
Global market backdrop
International cues offered mixed signals on the same day. Asian markets traded higher on Monday, while U.S. stock futures remained largely unchanged on Sunday evening as investors kept an eye on elevated Treasury yields and awaited the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes for clues on future rate moves.
In the United States, major indices posted gains on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 250 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 51,176.46. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to close at 7,722.72, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2% to settle at 27,190.86 after touching a record high during the session.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped around 2%, led by technology stocks, while the broader Topix index increased by 0.79%. South Korea’s market was closed on Monday in observance of a national holiday; the Kospi had ended the preceding week down 1.1% to 7,003.74 after a mixed performance. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 2.29% in early trading on Monday, adding a positive note to the regional picture.
Overall, the Indian market’s tentative green opening is set against a backdrop of sustained domestic weakness and cautious global sentiment. Analysts underscore that while technical factors provide pockets of support, the prevailing macro‑economic environment – characterized by high yields, foreign outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty – may limit the breadth of any short‑term rally.
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