U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told reporters on Thursday that a comprehensive trade agreement with India is not expected in the near term. Responding to a query from Indian news agency ANI, Greer said, “I don’t think there is something imminent,” and added that the two sides have “identified the universe of items that are sticking points.”
Recent diplomatic exchanges
The remarks came a day after President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke on the phone. Greer characterized the conversation as “very constructive,” and noted that he had also met with Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who was in the United States for bilateral talks and to attend the G20 trade ministers meeting in Milwaukee.
Goyal posted on social media that the discussions with Greer were focused on “early conclusion of a mutually beneficial interim agreement under the India‑US Bilateral Trade Agreement.” The Indian minister’s optimism contrasted with Greer’s more cautious assessment.
Key points of friction
Analysts highlighted that the remaining gaps revolve around two primary issues. For Washington, India’s continued imports of Russian oil remain a major source of tension. The United States argues that the purchases fund Russia’s war in Ukraine, and it has warned that New Delhi could face tariffs of up to 100 percent if the buying continues.
For New Delhi, the priority is to safeguard politically sensitive segments of its agricultural sector and to retain preferential tariff treatment that gives Indian exporters an advantage over competitors. Ronak D. Desai, a visiting fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, told CNBC that “Goyal is counting the issues already resolved, and Greer is counting the ones that remain,” adding that the final issues in any trade deal are often the hardest to settle.
India’s reliance on Russian oil has risen amid the war in Iran, which has threatened its energy security. While the United States views the purchases as a direct financial link to Moscow’s war effort, Indian officials have maintained that securing energy supplies is the sole driver of the policy.
Tariff history and current barriers
In August of the previous year, the United States imposed a punitive 25 percent tariff on Indian imports as a response to the Russian oil purchases, subsequently raising duties on a broader set of Indian goods to 50 percent. In February, the duties were reduced to 18 percent after President Trump claimed that India had agreed to halt Russian oil purchases and to increase imports from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela.
India disputed Trump’s characterization, emphasizing that its energy strategy is dictated by the need to ensure reliable supplies amid global constraints. Since the start of the year, both the United States and Venezuela have become more prominent sources in India’s energy basket, but the ongoing Iran conflict has limited India’s ability to fully shift away from Russian barrels.
Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia advisor at strategic advisory firm Teneo, told CNBC that “we may also be reaching the limits of trade complementarities between the two countries under current circumstances.” He added that neither side appears ready to accommodate the other’s core demands, nor are they in a position to simply “agree to disagree and conclude the deal around those differences.”
In addition to the oil dispute, Indian exports to the United States currently face a 10 percent tariff that was applied after the U.S. Trade Representative’s office concluded an investigation into forced‑labor practices in 60 countries. The Indian government says that a substantial share of its exports—such as generic pharmaceuticals and smartphones—are exempt from that duty.
Outlook for the bilateral trade talks
Prime Minister Modi described his phone conversation with President Trump as “productive,” noting that the leaders reviewed bilateral trade, defense, energy, critical technologies, and ongoing efforts to advance global peace and security. Despite the positive tone of the call, Greer’s comments suggest that substantive progress on the broader trade framework remains elusive.
The pending issues—particularly the United States’ demand that India curtail Russian oil purchases and India’s request for preferential tariff treatment for its agricultural and manufacturing sectors—continue to dominate the negotiation table. As both sides navigate domestic political pressures and geopolitical constraints, the timeline for an interim or final agreement remains uncertain.
Stakeholders on both sides will be watching upcoming meetings, including the G20 trade ministers summit in Milwaukee, for any signs of movement. Until the sticking points are resolved, the prospect of a comprehensive India‑U.S. trade pact appears distant.
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