The Iran-Israel conflict seems to be getting intense with each passing day. As of the tenth day, the US Cabinet, led by Donald Trump confirmed on June 22 that three precision strikes were carried out on three different military sites in Iran, with an intent to control its growing rage and put an end to the apparent nuclear threat that Israel possesses.
All eyes are now on Iran’s potential retaliation. In the range of options Iran has, possibly the most discussed is the threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. The parliament of Iran, with its president and supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has approved the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which can have widespread implications on many countries, since this passage serves as a crucial oil trade route for several nations.
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to encourage Iran to not shut down the Strait. Let us understand how this move affects India and its consequences as a result of it.
What is the Strait of Hormuz?
A strait is a narrow water body connecting two larger bodies of water. The two water bodies that the Strait of Hormuz connects are the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, which further flows out into the Arabian Sea.
Countries around the Persian Gulf region like Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE are major oil producers and depend upon the Strait of Hormuz to access the open sea. The Strait is in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, and accounts for a big bulk of the world’s oil trade.
Since the width of the shipping lane in the ‘to and fro’ direction is only about 3 kms, it becomes quite easy to block the route for ships passing through.
How Soon can Iran block the Strait of Hormuz?
Blocking or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz can mean laying mines in the sea, attacking passing ships with missiles and bombs, detaining ships, or carrying out cyberattacks on the vessels. So far, Iran has never attempted to block this Strait, amid any war or conflict.
- Blocking this Strait may deeply hamper the trade ties with Iran’s neighbours and disrupt its own trade too.
- Iran’s ally China buys oil in bulk at heavy discounts, and a stoppage of this route will great impact China’s energy needs, which may lead to an unpleasant situation as well.
- The US has its 5th Fleet stationed in Bahrain and can respond quickly to Iran’s activities in the region.
How will India be Affected?
As of late 2024, almost 84% of the crude oil and 83% of the liquefied natural gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets. Out of these countries such as China, India, Japan and South Korea account for as much as 69% of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows, emerging as the top destinations in the Asian subcontinent.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, India oil market will have major alterations and the crude oil prices are expected to shoot up rapidly in the international market. India currently purchases oil from Russia, the United States and Africa too, so it is not that it won’t be able to get enough oil and gas. The problem shall rise in matters of price fluctuation. The Union Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, led by Hardeep Puri is expected to work out options of intervening and control the rising tensions.
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