The Cryptocurrency market looks to bounce back and move past its lowest figures since recent months, trying to regain the confidence.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed back above $90,000 on November 26, attempting to regain lost ground after sliding to nearly $81,000 last Friday — its lowest level since April 2025. The uptick came in the U.S. equity markets as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite headed toward a fourth consecutive day of gains, supported by growing investor confidence in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
However, despite the renewed optimism, several strategists caution that Bitcoin’s recent movement should not be mistaken for the beginning of a classic V-shaped recovery. Instead, they point to deeper structural challenges and shifting market correlations that make the crypto landscape less predictable than usual.
Correlation With Stocks Weakens
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong relationship with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq Composite. But that pattern appears to have weakened. According to Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Management, Bitcoin’s recent decline has been more severe than that of the Nasdaq, indicating a breakdown in their usual correlation.
This divergence suggests that crypto-specific factors — rather than general risk-on sentiment — are driving Bitcoin’s moves.
Still Down Nearly 30% From October Peak
Even with the rebound, Bitcoin remains down about 28% from its all-time high above $126,000, recorded in October 2025. Analysts note that while the fourth quarter is traditionally one of Bitcoin’s strongest, those gains typically require a clear catalyst.
Strategists at 10X Research emphasized that historical patterns show Q4 surges rarely occur without a meaningful trigger.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Not a Guaranteed Boost
Markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Yet researchers at 10X Research argue that a rate cut alone may not be enough to fuel a strong Bitcoin recovery. Their analysis suggests Bitcoin reacts more sharply to the Fed’s communication and tone than to the act of cutting rates itself. A softer and generic message could help stabilize prices, but unclear or cautious messaging may add volatility.
If the Federal does not cut rates in December, strategists warn the likelihood of a sharper pullback in both equities and cryptocurrencies could increase.
Liquidity Questions: The TGA Effect
The role of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) — effectively the government’s central spending account — is also under scrutiny. Some analysts expected increased TGA spending to support risk assets, but 10x Research challenges this assumption.
- They point out that during a previous TGA drawdown of about $522 billion, Bitcoin dropped roughly 15% before eventually bottoming out two months later.
- This lag raises doubts about whether TGA flows have a direct, immediate impact on Bitcoin’s price.
- Given the TGA’s current elevated level, analysts believe that if the same delayed pattern repeats, Bitcoin could continue consolidating through late January 2026 before any visible liquidity-driven boost emerges.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s rise above $90,000 offers some relief after recent declines, but several indicators suggest caution. With uncertain Fed communication, shifting liquidity conditions, and fading correlation with equities, analysts believe Bitcoin may remain in a consolidation phase rather than beginning a full-fledged recovery.
Investors will be closely watching central bank signals and market liquidity trends to gauge the cryptocurrency’s next major move.
Helene Elliott is the senior reporter for News Raise. She covers Science news. She also has a keen interest in photojournalism. Helene holds a nomination for the prestigious Red Smith Award. She is married to author Dennis D’Agostino, a former publicist with the New York Mets.
